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Global Surface Warming: Worst-Case Projections (IPCC)

WorldPhysical Environment

Projection of surface temperatures for the 2081–2100 period using the RCP8.5 model, which integrates change in annual mean surface temperature, change in annual mean precipitation, in percentages, and change in average sea level relative to the 1986–2005 period. RCP8.5 represents future change in atmospheric temperature if there is no reduction in cumulative greenhouse gas emissions between 2010 and 2100.

UN IPCC

A map shows global surface warming worst-case projections in degrees Celsius. Extensive warming is depicted in the Arctic and northern hemisphere regions. Moderate warming covers the equatorial and southern regions.

Warming of up to 3 degrees Celsius (light to medium peach) will occur over most of Earth’s oceans, except in the central and north Pacific, along the continental shelves, in the Mediterranean Sea, and the ocean around Antarctica, where it will warm even more between 3 and 5 degrees (peach to light red). Extreme warming from 5 to 7.5 degrees (red to dark red) and higher will occur over the Arctic Ocean. On the continents, warming of between 3 and 4 degrees (light red) will occur in the interior of these landmasses, with more intense warming, of 4 to 5 degrees (medium red), occurring in the midlatitudes of interior North America and Eurasia, the western Sahara, the Arabian Peninsula, and southwestern Asia. The most warming over land, ranging from about 5 to 7.5 degrees (dark to very dark red), will occur in northeastern Canada from around Hudson Bay northward, and across Eurasia from northern Scandinavia across Russia to far eastern Siberia and the Pacific. Warming of up to 1.5 degrees (light peach) will occur in the Southern Antarctic Circle below New Zealand, some areas in the Southern Pacific Ocean, and a small region in the North Atlantic Ocean below Iceland.

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Global Surface Warming: Worst-Case Projections (IPCC)

2.0 to 3.0

3.0 to 4.0

4.0 to 5.0

5.0 to 7.0

7.0 to 9.0

9.0 to 11.0

Alaska
6.12%51.8%41.5%0.619%
Nunavut
0.715%79.8%19.5%
Arizona
54.1%45.9%
Utah
100%
Yukon
0.183%84.6%15.2%
Northwest Territories
42.5%40.6%16.9%
District of Columbia
100%
Florida
80.2%19.8%
Idaho
100%
New Hampshire
100%
Rhode Island
100%
Vermont
100%
Washington
0.721%92.9%6.36%
Wyoming
100%
Montana
100%
Maine
1.11%98.9%
North Dakota
100%
Kentucky
97.3%2.66%
Nova Scotia
2.28%97.7%
Virginia
100%
Delaware
100%
Prince Edward Island
100%
Saskatchewan
100%
Mississippi
1.68%98.3%
West Virginia
92.6%7.41%
Nebraska
100%
Texas
0.717%88.6%10.7%
Missouri
13.6%86.4%
Louisiana
22.6%77.4%
Hawaii
4.46%95.5%
North Carolina
0.811%99.2%
Oregon
12.9%72.2%14.9%
New Brunswick
100%
Alabama
0.226%99.8%
New Mexico
10.1%89.9%
Kansas
100%
Wisconsin
100%
British Columbia
1.02%33.9%65.1%
Newfoundland and Labrador
24.5%75.5%
New Jersey
74.2%25.8%
South Carolina
0.446%99.6%
Michigan
100%
Alberta
100%
Connecticut
100%
Pennsylvania
12.1%87.9%
Colorado
100%
Nevada
36.6%63.4%
Massachusetts
0.220%9.11%90.7%
Georgia
10.5%89.5%
New York
2.91%97.1%
Maryland
97.8%2.21%
Québec
74.3%25.7%
Manitoba
84.3%15.7%
Oklahoma
62.1%37.9%
Tennessee
100%
Ontario
88.8%11.2%
California
29.5%70.5%
Arkansas
100%
South Dakota
100%
Ohio
11.8%88.2%
Indiana
3.46%96.5%
Minnesota
100%
Iowa
100%
Illinois
4.57%95.4%
0.19.0